Death Outpacing Birth in Pittsburgh
by Steve Watters on 05/19/2008 at 11:06 AM
In light of earlier news that Japan is facing a population implosion, I was interested to read in the New York Times that Pittsburgh (along with other pockets in the United States) now has more residents die each year than they have new people born.
Basic math implies that population will decline in these conditions unless it's offset by people moving into the city -- but there aren't enough new people moving in to Pittsburgh. According to the article, population plunged from 423,000 in 1980 to about 312,000 today -- with a decline of 60,000 in the metropolitan area just since 2000. Demographers call this a "natural decrease" and according to the New York Times, it:
...has been occurring for years in tiny rural towns and in some retirement meccas in the South. But the phenomenon is relatively new in metropolitan areas in the Northeast, the Rust Belt of the Middle West and Appalachia.
So what does that mean practically? The article illustrates:
Hospitals are closing obstetrics wards and converting them to acute care. Local governments and other social service providers are adjusting to the emergence of entire neighborhoods where the average age is soaring, and private foundations are awarding scholarships to retain students and attract new ones.
In Pittsburgh, public school enrollment plummeted from about 70,000 two decades ago to about 30,000 and continues shrinking by about 1,000 a year.
"What we look like, you're going to start to see elsewhere," one professor told the Times:
Chris Briem [a regional economist at the Center for Social and Urban Research at the University of Pittsburgh] traced the shift to the shuttering of steel plants in Pittsburgh, which prompted residents to seek work elsewhere.
"It was a very age-selective migration: young, working-age people took away their families and future families, leaving behind a population that aged in place," he said.
While the general population of the United States continues to grow, a map on the New York Times Website beside the article shows that numerous areas are experiencing the trend of deaths outpacing births.
I'm curious to know (among any would-be demographers out there) what the realistic options are for reversing the population trend in these communities beyond either 1) finding great ways to compel new residents to move there (think Radiator Springs in the movie Cars) or 2) some kind of renewed emphasis on family formation among the people who already love calling places like Pittsburgh "home."
1. Chris B. (VA) said the following at 11:26 AM on May 19:
The only option that I can see for encouraging renewed growth in declining industrial centers like Pittsburg is the creation of new jobs. If there is no work--specifically entry-level work that provides opportunities for younger families--then people will continue to leave.
That solution is simple and guaranteed to succeed, but I don't know if it is realistic.
2. Angela said the following at 11:31 AM on May 19:
Perhaps if current (and recent past) American culture didn't support killing our future population, we wouldn't see so depressing a decline in those living.
3. B. Minich said the following at 11:50 AM on May 19:
Pittsburgh is the city near where I grew up, and this doesn't totally surprise me. I think a vital factor of this is that the young people in my area are moving away. I'm one of these: I now live in Maryland, and I had to move to find employment. Thus, the people who, if they stayed, would be having babies are having babies elsewhere in the United States, which obviously means less people are being born in Pittsburgh. Its kind of sad, really, because there are many people who would love to live there but can't because of the economic conditions.
One indication of this is the proliferation of Pittsburgh Steelers fans everywhere. Most of these people are displaced people from Pittsburgh, which has been shedding people since the 70s and 80s, and who still love the area but have built lives elsewhere. This phenomena is probably why Rust Belt cities are decreasing in population, but I don't know if it can explain other US cities.
4. Holly said the following at 12:32 PM on May 19:
I think it was Harry Truman who said that a thousand cities of 7000 are far better than one city of 7 million, and I agree.
5. SJ said the following at 1:06 PM on May 19:
What we're dealing with is two different issues that should probably be discussed separately. In regards to Pittsburgh, the city is shrinking because the economic base there has been weakened with entire industries collapsing. People are leaving the city, particularly younger people looking for jobs and opportunities. The only real way for Pittsburgh to survive is for the city to reinvent itself, to adapt its economy to growing areas such as technology, perhaps leveraging its strengths through its strong local universities like Carnegie Mellon and the University of Pittsburgh.
As for national population stagnation, such as seen in Japan and Western Europe, this is a more complicated matter. Even when you factor out the issue of later marriage ages, even stable families seem less and less willing to have large families anymore, sticking with just two or three. Issues range from the debatable financial burden (question of priorities) to higher survival rates (reducing the need for more children) to a more urban population (large families no longer need to work the farm) and even whether or not a constantly growing population is wise for sustainment.
6. Mark said the following at 1:14 PM on May 19:
The regions that you mentioned have been hard-hit by the closing of steel mills, auto assembly plants and the loss of other manufacturing jobs. Combine this with the high tax rate and the drudgery of winter in a lot of these places and it's not hard to figure out why people leave the mid-west and other northeastern towns.
My parents moved from Buffalo to Atlanta in the '70s when my dad's workplace closed. Atlanta is rife with transplanted northeasterners and midwesterners.
I worked in Alabama for a few years and that state has become the "Detroit of the southeast." Numerous foreign car makers have opened up shop there over the last 15 years. This happened through some major tax concessions by the state and the availability of non-unionized labor. Coincidentally, Birmingham was in shambles after their steel industry tanked the same time it did in Pittsburgh and Buffalo. They responded by pouring money into their medical school and now it's one of the larger medical research areas in the eastern U.S. (and has a growing population and a lower cost of living than comparably-sized cities.)
How can Pittsburgh, Detroit and Buffalo recover from this decline? Make it attractive for businesses to open in these cities. Back off on the red tape and don't tax the companies to death. There is a large population of well-educated professionals and highly skilled labor in all of these places that would be most appreciative. I don't know what they can do about the winters though...
7. P&P said the following at 1:50 PM on May 19:
It really does all come down to economics. Once upon a time, the steel industry made P'burgh a great city. Unfortunately, the city did not invest heavily in attracting other businesses/industries to the area, thinking that steel would keep the city alive.
If cities like Pittsburgh can go into competition with other cities that offer huge tax breaks to corporations willing to relocate divisions, they might have a chance. Otherwise, you will see people continuing to leave in order to find jobs that will enable them to start families and buy property.
8. obewan said the following at 2:28 PM on May 19:
It may sound protectionist, but we could impose some trade tariffs on foreign steel producers. People can blame unions until the cows come home, but even if we paid people $8 an hour, we could not compete with China and their labor and currency games. When I was laid off from a robotics-engineering job in Detroit, I was forced to temp at anything I could find. I even fought with illegal immigrants at the temp agency for “good” factory jobs that paid $8 an hour with no benefits and no job security. AND, some of those jobs were finally “outsourced” to China by (very wealthy) factory owners who said they could not ”compete” unless they did so. Maybe if they revive the nuclear power industry, parts of Pittsburgh would see some growth – at least if there are any heavy welding fabrication shops left.
9. Annie said the following at 2:28 PM on May 19:
This is a normal and natural thing in the rise and fall of cities. What would be so bad about Pittsburgh getting smaller? It's not going to last forever. Great cities peak, and decline. Look at Rome, for an example. Natural and expected. Maybe it is sub optimal in the short term, but in the large scheme of things...that's what happens.
10. Steve Watters said the following at 3:28 PM on May 19:
Mark: Your comment reminded me of an article I read once with a title along the lines of "Last one out of the rust belt states, turn the lights out" that talked about the factors you described, but added that tax rates keep climbing in those areas because they have fewer people to spread the tax burden on to--only making it harder to attract new growth.
11. Jethro said the following at 3:38 PM on May 19:
I don't know about Pittsburgh (I've never been there), but there are some towns and cities I have been to where I have just looked around and literally thought to myself 'how does this place survive?'.
I'm not sure what can be done about it, but if there are not enough jobs and a population in serious decline maybe it's just time for people to jump ship and move to another city...
12. Matthew said the following at 3:43 PM on May 19:
SJ (#5) said: "What we're dealing with is two different issues that should probably be discussed separately."
I totally agree.
In my geography studies at Kansas State University, the depopulation of the Great Plains was a big topic. (Notice on the map Steve links to that the highest concentration of counties where deaths outnumber births is in the middle of the country.) For decades now young people have been leaving the Great Plains for jobs. It's an issue economic and cultural opportunity.
Just because an area has more deaths than births doesn't mean it has a "family formation" problem.
13. Kellie said the following at 4:04 PM on May 19:
The town my husband and I just moved from is closing some schools due to lack of students. However, this is because the cost of living in that city is so high that young families cannot afford to live there (hence us moving away). Would that be the case in Pittsburgh?
14. Brian said the following at 4:20 PM on May 19:
A heavy tax burden and pro-union employment policies have made it more difficult for new businesses to move into many of these rust-belt states (NY, MI, OH, PA). The states that are seeing the fastest new-job growth are so-called "right to work" states such as Alabama and Texas that are more attractive to employers. As several other comments have indicated, young people out of necessity move to where the best jobs exist, and right now there are many more of these in the south where these employer-friendly policies are more common.
Whether you are for or against unions, this much is true, they have brought on many of the troubles they (and their members) face today.
15. Amy said the following at 5:00 PM on May 19:
I'll agree with the above. The biggest reason these cities are on the decline is economics. There's a reason it's called the Rust Belt. I myself work with a woman who grew up in Pittsburgh, but has never moved back since becoming an adult because she saw no future for herself there. Though I think bringing new industry and revenue into the area is likely to at least level off the population growth/decline. (The Penguins could sure help with that, going to the Stanley Cup finals, building a new arena, it's a shot in the arm for the beleagured city.)
16. Chris said the following at 7:05 PM on May 19:
As a resident of a suburb of the Burgh, I can tell you that it's job availability. Young people can easily find other jobs in other cities that pay better, even after you figure in Pittsburgh's lower cost of living.
But that's only the beginning. The real problem is a lack of higher level/higher paying jobs, the ones that professionals in their 30s and 40s desire to support their families.
This, IMHO, is where Pittsburgh misses the boat. It's not just jobs to attract young people. It's jobs to attract families. And it's a shame. Pittsburgh is a great place to raise a family. My house cost less than half of the median cost of a house in the US. I'm less than a mile from my kids' school (one of the best districts in the county) and less than a mile from a community center and library. The zoo and museums are top notch. I can think of few better places than Magee Women's Hospital and Children's Hospital to have/take care of kids. And if you want to get your kids involved in the outdoors, PA has tons of parks, lakes, and so forth.
Unfortunately, it's a catch-22. Companies don't like to locate in areas without a good workforce....but you can't get a good workforce without a supply of decent jobs. I could easily find a better paying job (in terms of cost of living) down south in a heartbeat if I wanted to.
What we seem to be unable to do is reach that critical point at which there are enough jobs/trained people/investments to make things "click" and have them become self-sustaining. Maybe biotech or the like will do it.
Of course, if Pittsburgh and Allegheny County merge, pack it up and go home. It's all down the tubes then........
17. Mike Theemling said the following at 10:36 AM on May 20:
Echoing what obewan and Brian have stated, the sheer economics make keeping jobs Stateside increasingly more difficult.
Do you guys realize how expensive it is to hire just 1 person full time? You have insurance costs (medical and liability), OSHA requirements, not to mention dealing with possible Union issues.
I'm not saying these things are bad. I'm just saying that it is much cheaper to have work done overseas than it is here. And the Federal government has not yet given enough incentive to keep jobs here.
Mark pointed out a solution that is or will become necessary in many parts of the country: Economic incentive and "reinventing" a city. If cities like Detroit and Pittsburgh don't want to become dead cities, they will need to make some hard (and possibly politically incorrect) decisions for revival.
18. Lore said the following at 11:50 AM on May 20:
I did my thesis on the One Child Policy in China, and though I'm no demographer or sociologist, I think that it's worth noting that it's not just because people are moving out of big cities that the demographics are changing so drastically -- abortion (or for many Chinese residents, forced sterilization, and for American residents, voluntary sterilization) and lack of regard for the sanctity and blessing of life, is the cause.
It may show up in the economic situation--but the real reason is summed up nicely in Psalm 107:
"He changes rivers into a wilderness and springs of water into a thirsty ground. A fruitful land into a salt waste, because of the wickedness that dwells in it."
The only hope for a reversal is a return of righteousness and a permeation of the gospel in our lives:
"He changes a wilderness into a pool of water, and a dry land into springs of water, and there He makes the hungry to dwell, so that they may establish an inhabited city."
19. Esther said the following at 1:32 PM on May 20:
I grew up in the no man's land midway between Pittsburgh and Buffalo. (That particular area has been experiencing population decline since the Civil War, but I'm not even going to get into those issues.) Still, those being some of the biggest cities around, their struggles have been very present to me. Recently I spent a few years on the outskirts of Buffalo. It really is a nice city, and my understanding is that Pittsburgh is beautiful too. However, they are victims of change, and stupid government policies. The answer (as I see it) is NOT to try to come up with smarter gov't policies, it is to get out of the way of individuals and entrepreneurs. One of the saddest things to see has been how New York has driven the talented and motivated young people out. Those with good ideas, who start something up, then as it gets going and they start hiring, they look at what it will cost them in NY, versus NC or FL, and they leave. Gov't has one tool: taxes and tax breaks. Too often, I've seen NY companies shut their doors because of the taxes. Then the gov't tries to attract other companies with tax breaks. If they'd just let off of the ones that were there in the first place, it would have made more sense.
20. skp said the following at 2:00 PM on May 20:
I grew up in Pittsburgh and now live in Cleveland. My family still lives in Pittsburgh I left Pittsburgh because of my marriage- not because of jobs. People say the same thing here in Cleveland- there are no jobs in NE Ohio. I know someone from Cleveland that just got a job in Pittsburgh. IMO Pittsburgh's population is declining not because of jobs but because of taxes. My parents taxes on a small home in Pittsburgh are EQUAL to my home which is twice as big. Water and sewer are high. People are moving out of the city and out of Allegheny County. They are willing to drive to their jobs in order to pay less in taxes. The cost of living in the area is good. Pittsburgh is trying to develop technology jobs. Pitt and Carnegie Mellon ARE doing joint research. Pittsburgh is rated one of the most liveable cities in the USA. I'd hate for someone who has never been there to picture it as "just another rust belt town."
21. Kristen said the following at 7:06 PM on May 20:
Don't worry. I live in Pittsburgh and I plan on having lots of babies.
22. Kate said the following at 10:51 PM on May 20:
With Pittsburgh (go pens!) it is an issue of jobs. Can I live here as a artsy 20 something who goes to school? Sure! Me and my studio above the indian restaurant are doing great. Can I get a professional job here when my studies are over? I sure hope so.
I think Pittsburgh, with all the universities and colleges, tends to be treated as a temporary stop for people our age. It's where we go to school, learn to love the Steelers, than move where the jobs are, which seems to be South, from what I've observed personally. Pittsburgh needs professional development.
Here's hoping the economy gets better here, because humidity does terrible things to my hair . . .
23. Audrey said the following at 8:08 AM on May 21:
HAHAH. I LOVE KRISTEN'S COMMENT AFTER READING ALL THE PREVIOUS COMMENTS.
24. David Ketter said the following at 12:02 PM on May 22:
Having been born and bred in Pittsburgh, and now having to watch stories of its decline run past me, and various economic strategies presented and different civil strategies touted, I have another idea. There is one thing that people will not give up: a home, a community.
We've long lost the meaning of community in Pittsburgh and that has just as much to do with the economic troubles as it does with all the Christians moving out to the suburbs. The very people that know the One Who is the only firm foundation for any community are abandoning their prime place of ministry because "good people don't live there."
You want to revitalize communities and cities? Then move into them, start community-based ministries (locally-run and operated businesses, for instance) and make the Gospel more than the words we say and the morals we espouse. Live in the cities in a way that would reflect the Kingdom of God.
PS: Ditto to Kristen. :)
25. BDB said the following at 4:54 PM on May 26:
For more than 20 years there's been a movement of people - and jobs - from the blue states to the red states. It's heavily because tax rates are much lower in the red states.
We see the same thing within California. I live in a red Inland county, but close enough to the LA County line to see all the crazy shenanigans that go on there. They just tried to ban plastic grocery bags by taxing them $.25 each. But almost all grocery stores are within incorporated cities. So, they tried to pass a statewide bill banning plastic grocery bags. It failed (this time.)
As I recall my history, plastic grocery bags became popular after someone dug into a landfill and discovered newspapers from the 1940's that hadn't decomposed. If paper isn't going to decompose anyway, plastic takes up far less space, meaning far less bulk of trash. I re-use them to line my trash cans at home.
If politicians are going to waste their time with crazy rules like that, it really doesn't surprise me that the blue areas continue to bleed jobs. That's also why people keep moving out of blue counties and into red ones - less regulatory hassle leads to cheaper housing.
Ireland has low tax rates - its economy is running circles around the rest of Europe. Cut taxes = more, better jobs.
26. obewan said the following at 8:25 AM on May 27:
“>>For more than 20 years there's been a movement of people - and jobs - from the blue states to the red states. It's heavily because tax rates are much lower in the red states.<<”
I think it is more than just tax rates. Cost of living has a lot to do with it. When I used to work in the defense business, I lived in CT where the cost of living was through the roof. We sold a submarine reactor for $20M. Our friends in VA sold them for $18M. Our hands were tied because we HAD to pay our people more to make up for the high cost of housing. At the time, $100K in CT would buy a tarpaper fixer upper shack. In VA, $100K would buy a mansion with white pillars on the front. Even in cases where taxes are apples to apples, there is little that can be done in the case of a high cost of living. A low cost of living is why auto plants in the South can afford to hire people for $12 an hour as opposed to $17 an hour in the North. I was an automotive robotics engineer for 8 years and supported the whole country and am well acquainted with the cost accounting.
27. BDB said the following at 12:03 PM on May 27:
obewan (#26) wrote:
>>I think it is more than just tax rates. Cost of living has a lot to do with it. <<
Allow me to re-phrase: high tax rates and regulatory burderns are what cause the cost of living to be high. For example, even here in a red county, the PERMIT to build a new house is more than $24,000. That's about 5-10% the cost of a normal family house around here. Then you add a 8% sales tax rate PLUS income tax, and it adds up quickly.
In most of the red states, there's a much easier time developing housing without the tax burden.
What's interesting about where I grew up is that the housing prices didn't grew nearly as much as the bubble, and they aren't dropping now. So, in a way, regional speculation can do the same thing to push up housing prices. The proximity of higher-paying jobs in nearby counties is what pushes up housing prices in nearby areas. In a way, jobs create housing costs.
Incidentally, there are so many companies that outsourced call centers to India that the call center companies raised their prices. It's no longer cost-effective to go to India for that. A lot of those experienced folks from India are moving to countries like the Phillipines and setting up call centers there. I find it fascinating that countries like India and the Phillipines, who formerly had a colonial relationship with the UK and the United States, are now working very, very hard to be capitalistic vendors for their former empires.